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RUB Spooked By US Warning of Potential Ukraine Invasion, Geopolitical Risks Back on the Menu

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades +0.67% higher this morning, in what appears to be an idiosyncratic move as geopolitical concerns brew over Ukraine & Belarus and oil markets slip in early trading.
  • The cross held flat for most of yesterday's session before breaking higher to close above 71.50 (+0.37%).
  • Price action is now pressing through the 72.00 handle, following overnight reports that the US has warned the EU of a potential Russian attempt to invade Ukraine following an increase in military activity on the border.
  • This is quite a large accusation from the US and seems somewhat overblown at this juncture, but has definitely spooked markets.
  • Responses from the Kremlin will be monitored closely in the coming days.
  • Moreover, confirmation of more sanctions in the pipeline for Belarus may see tensions with the EU increase over the weekend – should Russia decide to fully come to Belarus' aid.
  • As noted by our political analyst, threats of cutting off gas supplies would not have been executed without Putin's consent as he keeps pressure up on the EU with the US' focus currently trained on China.
  • Focus will be on the Nov highs at 72.2705 for a topside breakout towards 72.50 & 73.00.
  • Intraday Sup1: 71.6864, Sup2: 71.3197, Res1: 72.2705, Res2: 72.5556
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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