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Rupiah Outperforming Broader USD/Asia Gains


The rupiah is bucking the broader trend of firmer USD levels within Asia Pac trade today. After printing fresh highs above 15050 yesterday we sit back around 14990 in latest dealings. Spot IDR recovered sharply ahead of yesterday's onshore close, so we are only modestly firmer so far today in terms of spot gains. The 1 month NDF sits just under 15000.

  • Spot is back below the 100-day MA (15015.60), while the 50-dau MA sits further south at 14857.50.
  • Lower core yields through Tuesday's session have likely aided the IDR recovery, although there doesn't appear to be many other cross asset supports.
  • Onshore equities are tracking lower, with the JCI sub 6650 in index terms. Dips below 6600 have been supported in 2023. Portfolio outflows continue in the debt and equity space (as of Tuesday's session), although aggregate amounts are rather modest (-244.3mn for equities month to date, but bonds are still positive, +$759.4mn).
  • The local authorities will also ban copper exports once Freeport and Amman Mineral Internasional finish building smelters next year (likely to be completed in May 2024).
  • As we noted in our chart pack yesterday for Indonesia, the currency doesn't appear cheap in NEER and REER terms, but BI is on guard against FX weakness (see this link).
  • Tomorrow BI is expected to hold steady from a rates stand point.

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