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Rupiah Rangebound After Holiday, Awaits Indonesia's Trade Data

IDR

Spot USD/IDR has added 9 figs and sits at IDR14,382 as domestic markets have reopened after a one-day closure for the Independence Day. The rate has held a tight range, with bulls looking for a break above Aug 10 high of IDR14,401, before taking aim at the 50-DMA at IDR14,412. Bears look to a retreat under Aug 4 low/200-DMA at IDR14,305/14,297.

  • USD/IDR 1-month NDF has retreated and sits -44 figs at IDR14,427. On the downside, initial focus falls on Aug 12 low of IDR14,383, followed by the 200-DMA at IDR14,346. On the flip side, bulls look for a rally past Aug 11 high/50-DMA at IDR14,491/14,494.
  • Indonesian trade data will hit the wires later today, while Bank Indonesia have started their monetary policy meeting, with decision announcement coming up tomorrow.
  • Indonesian trade surplus is expected to have widened to +$2.315bn in July from +$1.316bn prior, with export growth expected to have moderated to +35.94% Y/Y from +54.43%, according to BBG consensus forecast.
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