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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
IDR
Spot USD/IDR has held a fairly narrow range thus far, as we await Indonesia's latest inflation figures. The rate last sits +5 figs at IDR14,468, with bulls looking for a clearance of Jul 21/2 highs of IDR14,559/14,568. Meanwhile, a dip through the 100-DMA/Jun 28 low at IDR14,421/14,415 would shift focus to the 50-DMA, which intersects at IDR14,403.
- USD/IDR 1-month NDF last seen +16 figs at IDR14,503. Topside focus falls on Jul 28 high of IDR14,588, followed by Jul 20 high of IDR14,676. Bears keep an eye on IDR14,451, which limited losses last Thursday.
- Pres Widodo reiterated his opposition to a strict nationwide lockdown, which "won's necessarily end the problem". Widodo said that "people are screaming for a reopening" even as the country is now under a "semi lockdown, not a full lockdown".
- Indonesia's Markit M'fing PMI took a strong hit in July, with the index falling to 40.1 from 53.5, showing the fastest pace of contraction since June 2020. Despite the pretty grim headline reading, IHS Markit noted that "manufacturers remained positive with regards to future output (...) carrying hopes for recovery and the possibility of a boost from pent-up demand".
- Badan Pusat Statistik Indonesia will release July CPI data at the top of the hour. Headline inflation is expected to register at +1.47% Y/Y, according to Bloomberg consensus forecast. Bank Indonesia expects it to print at +1.45% Y/Y, based on a weekly survey.
- Later this week, focus turns to Q2 GDP report, due Thursday, which is expected to show a return to growth.
Fig. 1: Indonesia Markit Manufacturing PMI
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg/IHS Markit
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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