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Rupiah Still At Technical Crossroads, Indonesian M'fing PMI Improves


Spot USD/IDR has added 25 figs so far and changes hands at IDR14,470, caught in familiar technical crosscurrents. Although the pair had a brief look above the neckline (IDR14,470, where the rate sits at typing) of a head & shoulders pattern completed last week, it failed to consolidate gains and pulled back from highs. Meanwhile, last week saw the rate form a golden cross, which is typically a strong bullish signal.

  • A move through Apr 23 high of IDR14,550 would revive broader bullish impetus, while losses past Apr 29/30 lows of IDR14,430/14,429 would shift focus to Mar 29 low/200-DMA at IDR14,410/14,406.
  • Indonesia Markit M'fing PMI improved to 54.6 in Apr from 53.2 recorded in Mar, indicating faster expansion in the sector. IHS Markit flagged "super strong expansions of new orders" and "first rise in exports since the COVID-19 pandemic hit," but also pointed to "firms still appeared reluctant to take on extra staff."
  • FinMin Indrawati attends ADB annual meeting today.
  • Indonesia's CPI data hit at the top of the hour. April CPI is expected to pick up to +1.50% Y/Y after registering at +1.37%, with estimates ranging from +1.20% to +2.70% (per BBG survey).
  • Looking further afield, Q1 GDP takes focus on Wednesday, with Danareksa Consumer Confidence also expected this week.

Fig. 1: Indonesia Markit Manufacturing PMI

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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