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Free AccessRupiah Weakens Despite Expectations That Bank Indonesia Could Raise Rates
The Fed's monetary policy decision is in rear-view mirror and focus turns to the imminent announcement from Bank Indonesia, which is widely expected to raise the 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate by another 25bp (see our preview here). Indonesia's central bank was a latecomer to the global tightening campaign, while yesterday's 75bp rate rise in the U.S. leaves it further behind.
- Spot USD/IDR last sits +41 figs at IDR15,039, hitting its best levels since 2020. The next layer of resistance is provided by May 5, 2020 high of IDR15,138. Bears would be pleased by a sell-off past Sep 12 low of IDR14,818.
- USD/IDR 1-month NDF last +12 figs at IDR15,076. Topside focus falls on Jul 21 high of IDR15,133, while bears keep an eye on the 100-DMA, which intersects at IDR14,830.
- Indonesia's 5-Year CDS premium soared this week, extending gains after the Fed's rate hike. It last sits at ~135bp, printing near two-month highs.
- Palm oil futures firmed Wednesday as a jump in Malaysian exports signalled recovery in demand. Buying interest has petered out as the contract for December delivery last deals MYR44/MT lower on the day.
- Foreign investors sold a net $60.7mn in local stocks Wednesday, while Jakarta Comp slipped. The benchmark index found poise this morning and has recouped its opening losses to last trade near neutral levels.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.