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Russia de-escalation pricing ahead of data

CANADA

Upcoming data

  • A collection of Jan data with Canadian housing starts (0815ET) and existing home sales (1400ET) plus US PPI inflation between the two at 0830ET (cons for core at 0.4% M/M after a downward revised 0.3%)

FX

  • USDCAD is down -0.15% at 1.271 on the apparent de-escalation in Russia-Ukraine tensions with Russian troops returning to bases for a -0.6% dip from yesterday’s peak. It slightly outperforms BBDXY down -0.3% on the day despite oil sliding.
  • Latest CFTC net speculative positioning had shown CAD net longs being trimmed to 10.3% of OI from 12.6% the prior week, but this was from Feb 8 prior to US CPI on Feb 10.

FI

  • GoCs ended a volatile day softer yesterday with a belly led sell-off (2YY +4.5bps, 5YY +6bps, 10YY +5.4bps, 30YY +4.7bps) as risks receded late on. 10Y futures suggest they will remain offered upon open.
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