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Russia headline drives markets

BONDS
  • This morning's price action for EGB, Bund and Global assets can be by summed up two contradicting story/Headline.
  • Overnight driver has been some suggestions that Biden and Putin have agreed on a Summit, with conditions that Russia doesn't invade Ukraine.
  • This provided a Risk On tone, and selling into Govies overnight.
  • But this was quickly reversed during our morning European session, when the Kremlin responded with: "No concrete pans yet for Putin, Biden Summit,"
  • EGBs and Bund are off their lows at the time of typing, but are still in the red after some decent PMI beats from France, Germany, EU and UK.
  • Some impressive ranges for Bund and OAT today, given that the US are out.
  • Gilt are mostly dominated by rolling position into June, with first notice on the 25th, although expiry is on the 29th March.
  • Similar story for US Treasuries, with desks likely taking advantage of the US Bank Holiday for initiating rolls.
  • Expect Treasuries and Gilts volumes to be dominated by spreads this week.
  • Today sees global PMI releases, but Russia will be at the forefront.
  • SPEAKERS: Include ECB de Cos, and Fed Bowman
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