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Russian Diesel Nears G7 $100/bbl Price Cap

OIL PRODUCTS

Russian diesel closed yesterday at just $5.50/bbl below the G7 price cap of $100/bbl according to Argus assessments – potentially risking flows being tied up by logistical and insurance bottlenecks if breached.

  • European diesel cracks have been volatile since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, swinging wildly between $20 and $60 per barrel.
  • Switching from short haul Russian to longer haul alternative supplies has made European buyers prone to greater import supply uncertainty.
  • More recently cracks have widened to $30, their widest since the G7 price caps were introduced in February.
  • If Russian flows are constrained by the price cap – Europe risks facing more competition for its alternative supplies it is targeting to replace Russian volumes.
  • US flows of diesel to Europe are at over 4.5 year highs in July of 1.14mn tons according to Kpler and Vortexa figures as a key supplier in the Russian sanction era.
  • US flows that usually head to South America have been displaced by discounted Russian barrels – which used to head to Europe.





source: Argus

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