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Russian FM To Meet w/Blinken Thursday, Le Drian Friday

SECURITY

Wires and social media reporting that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is set to meet with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in Geneva on Thursday 24 February followed by talks with French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian on Friday 25 February.

  • Both of these meetings contingent on Russia not invading Ukraine in the preceding days between now and then.
  • So far at Russia's National Security Council meeting (unclear if it is being held live or has been pre-recorded) all attendees barring Lavrov have voted for the recognition of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics. Putin has not announced a decision yet.
  • The recognition of the DPR/LPR would break the Minsk Accords, and could provide a further impetus for war.
  • Should the DPR/LPR be recognised as independent nation states by Russia, any 'shelling' or military action by Ukraine in the region (whether real or fabricated) could be said by Moscow to be an attack on a sovereign nation with a significant proportion of ethnic Russias. This in turn could be used as a pretext by Moscow for a military incursion into the Donbas or further into Ukraine.

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