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Russian Supply Risks and Infrastructure Security Drive TTF Higher

NATURAL GAS

The risk to the remaining Russia gas supplies to Europe and energy security are driving the TTF curve higher out to Win24.

    • TTF OCT 22 up 8.5% at 202€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 22 up 7.3% at 219.2€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 23 up 7.5% at 200.55€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 23 up 7.5% at 188.1€/MWh
  • Supply risks have increased with the suspected sabotage to both Nord Stream pipelines combined with the warning from Gazprom yesterday that Russian sanctions against Naftogaz could halt Ukraine transit flows.
  • The current 42mcm/d of gas supplied through Ukraine is at risk and the pipeline damage brings the wider energy infrastructure security into focus.
  • In a statement yesterday Gazprom said "Gazprom considers Naftogaz of Ukraine filing an appeal an unfriendly step and continuation of unprincipled behavior by the Ukrainian company, and further attempts by Naftogaz of Ukraine to achieve consideration of the dispute at the International Court of Arbitration could lead to Russian agencies of government authority having all grounds to introduce sanctions against Naftogaz of Ukraine and include it on the list of sanctioned entities. This will mean in practice a ban on Gazprom fulfilling obligations to sanctioned entities under concluded deals, including carrying out financial transactions."

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