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Ryanair (NR, BBB+, BBB+; S) FY24 Results (12m ending March)

TRANSPORTATION
Credit BulletsBulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeCredit

Looks like Ryanair will leave the credit space for now, results look in-line, FY25 guidance is thin.

  • Passengers carried at 183.7m (c183.6m) up +9%yoy, load factor at 94% (c93.6%), revenue at €13.4b (in-line) up 25%yoy & net of the €9.2b in operating costs left PAT of €1.92b (c1.90b) up 34%yoy.
  • Equity returns are being ramped up; final dividend of €0.178/share is not far from interim & in-line with expectations (totalling ~€400m this yr) but its also announced a €700m buyback programme "given current surplus cash" (€4.1b on hand & a net cash position of €1.4b).
  • On debt it stated intention to "paydown" '25 & '26 maturities and financing aircraft capex from "internal resources" adding in presso "debt free 2026".
  • For reference the €25/26s are the only outstanding lines & both bullets, 26s low cash px at €94.4, no spread value in either. Looks like Ryanair will join Wizzair (Ba1/BBB- S) - both with short-end lines rolling off & no supply in sight.
  • Outlook is for FY25 traffic up 8%, unit costs (ex. fuel) to rise modestly while fuel is 70$+ hedged at $79bbl. It says demand is positive with bookings trending ahead of last year, but notes pricing is softer than expected in Q1 (some of it on easter timing). Its guiding to 25% of PAT in dividend pay-outs (€480m in FY25 on today's FY24 PAT).
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Looks like Ryanair will leave the credit space for now, results look in-line, FY25 guidance is thin.

  • Passengers carried at 183.7m (c183.6m) up +9%yoy, load factor at 94% (c93.6%), revenue at €13.4b (in-line) up 25%yoy & net of the €9.2b in operating costs left PAT of €1.92b (c1.90b) up 34%yoy.
  • Equity returns are being ramped up; final dividend of €0.178/share is not far from interim & in-line with expectations (totalling ~€400m this yr) but its also announced a €700m buyback programme "given current surplus cash" (€4.1b on hand & a net cash position of €1.4b).
  • On debt it stated intention to "paydown" '25 & '26 maturities and financing aircraft capex from "internal resources" adding in presso "debt free 2026".
  • For reference the €25/26s are the only outstanding lines & both bullets, 26s low cash px at €94.4, no spread value in either. Looks like Ryanair will join Wizzair (Ba1/BBB- S) - both with short-end lines rolling off & no supply in sight.
  • Outlook is for FY25 traffic up 8%, unit costs (ex. fuel) to rise modestly while fuel is 70$+ hedged at $79bbl. It says demand is positive with bookings trending ahead of last year, but notes pricing is softer than expected in Q1 (some of it on easter timing). Its guiding to 25% of PAT in dividend pay-outs (€480m in FY25 on today's FY24 PAT).