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BRENT TECHS

(Z1) Fresh Trend High

EQUITY TECHS

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Approaching The All-Time High

USDCAD TECHS

Bear Leg Extends

AUDUSD TECHS

Northbound

MNI EXCLUSIVE

Bank Indonesia

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  • {sa} SA 5Y Breakevens have moved to a new yearly high with spot rates approaching the 5.00 handle. Since the start of the month, 5Y breakevens have risen +36bp, with price action accelerating higher this morning (+12bp) alongside longer-term contracts.

  • Similarly, 10Y breakevens now trade close to their YTD highs at 6.20, having risen +43bp since the start of the month – breaking a bear channel pattern established back in April 2021.
  • Both contracts continue to track oil price developments closely, with 10Y B/Es showing a slightly higher degree of sensitivity to firmer oil prices. Brent currently trades a fraction below $80/bbl – adding risks to forecast revisions CPI into year-end
  • This comes as the SARB continues to argue that inflation vectors remain broadly balanced over the medium-term, while acknowledging that short-term risks remain to the upside given higher oil and food prices – all of which will need to be monitored closely into year-end.