Satabo Moves North Carolina From Lean Republican To Toss-Up

Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia has changed its presidential election rating for North Carolina, moving it from 'lean Republican" to "toss-up."

• The move means that seven states are now toss-ups: The Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina.
• Sabato concludes: "Polling generally suggests a similar ordering of the states to 2020, although Republicans are polling better than one might expect in Nevada and Democrats better in Wisconsin, two states where presidential polling errors have not been uncommon recently."
• Vice President Kamala Harris' recent polling strength in the Sun Belt has increased the importance of Georgia for former President Donald Trump, likely in line with the importance of Pennsylvania for Harris.
• Sabato notes there, "has been a lon[g]-running argument about the possibility that North Carolina might be a better target for Democrats than Georgia. This argument would have been very reasonable in past cycles but seemed odd during this one, given that Georgia had voted narrowly for Biden in 2020. As of now, Harris’s polling is very modestly better in North Carolina than Georgia. We do still think Georgia is likelier than not to vote to the left of North Carolina again in 2024, despite the polls."

Figure 1: Swing States Ordered from Most Democratic to Most Republican, 2000-2020Source: Sabato's Crystal Ball