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Saudi Arabia’s Decision to Halt Oil Expansion Limits Supply Buffer in Mid-Term

OIL

Saudi Arabia’s decision to halt the planned oil capacity increase to 13mbpd by 2027 does not immediately affect the physical oil market but will limit the global supply buffer to absorb potential supply-side disruptions or demand increases in the medium term, Fitch Ratings said.

  • The change in the strategy also sends a signal to the market that it should not overly rely on Saudi Arabia to absorb future increases in oil demand or supply disruptions, it said.
  • The kingdom’s decision could tighten the oil market if demand grows strongly by end-2030 and the energy transition proceeds slowly, Fitch added.
  • Fitch forecast Brent prices at $80/bbl in 2024, with no strong upside as there is a significant OPEC+ space capacity of over 5mbpd, despite Red Sea disruptions.

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