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Saudi Needs Crude at $90/bbl for 2024 Budget: Fitch
Saudi Arabia needs oil prices to average at least $90/bbl for it to balance its 2024 budget, according to Fitch Ratings, boosting the chance that its output cuts will be extended into Q2.
- The fiscal breakeven price “has risen in recent years and we forecast it will remain above $90 per barrel in 2024 before falling to $85 per barrel in 2025.”
- The IMF breakeven estimate is slightly less than $80/bbl for this year, according to its October regional outlook.
- A $10/bbl swing in crude prices impacts Saudi Arabia’s budget by 2%-2.5% of GDP and a 500kbpd change in oil output impacts the fiscal balance by about 1% of GDP according to Fitch.
- The OPEC+ group is likely to decide in early March on whether to extend cuts into Q2 as is widely expected by the market.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.