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Saudi Needs Crude at $90/bbl for 2024 Budget: Fitch

OIL

Saudi Arabia needs oil prices to average at least $90/bbl for it to balance its 2024 budget, according to Fitch Ratings, boosting the chance that its output cuts will be extended into Q2.

  • The fiscal breakeven price “has risen in recent years and we forecast it will remain above $90 per barrel in 2024 before falling to $85 per barrel in 2025.”
  • The IMF breakeven estimate is slightly less than $80/bbl for this year, according to its October regional outlook.
  • A $10/bbl swing in crude prices impacts Saudi Arabia’s budget by 2%-2.5% of GDP and a 500kbpd change in oil output impacts the fiscal balance by about 1% of GDP according to Fitch.
  • The OPEC+ group is likely to decide in early March on whether to extend cuts into Q2 as is widely expected by the market.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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