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US TSYS: Scaling Back Friday Highs, Lat Week PCE, GDP Data Focus

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries are trading moderately weaker, low end of narrow range as rates scale back a small portion of Friday's risk-off & data-driven rally.
  • Treasury March'25 10Y futures are currently -5.5 at 109-16.5 (109-16L/109-21H), inside technical levels: initial resistance above at 109-24/110-00 (High Feb 21 / 7 and the bull trigger), support well below at 108-21.5 (Low Feb 19). 10Y yield +.0058 at 4.4371%, curves flatter: 2s10s -1.134 at 21.770, 5s30s -.378 at 40.051.
  • Heavier volume despite Japan out on extended holiday weekend, ongoing quarterly futures roll from Mar'25 to Jun'25 (June takes lead this Friday), helps push TYH5 to 420k so far.
  • Limited data today with regional Fed reporting (prior, est): Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (0.15, -0.05) at 0830ET, Dallas Fed Mfg Activity (14.1, 6.4) at 1030ET. No scheduled Fed speakers.
  • The upcoming US economic calendar is backloaded, with the second release for Q4 national accounts on Thursday before the January PCE report on Friday. Real GDP growth is seen confirming what was at the time a softer than expected 2.3% annualized in Q4, whilst there will also be a first estimate for real GDI growth after 2.1% in Q3.
  • US Treasury auctions resume $76B 13W & $68B 26W bill auctions at 1130ET, $69B 2Y Note auction (91282CMP3) at 1300ET.
  • Cross asset update: Crude mildly higher (WTI +.08 at 70.48; Gold climbing 12.72 at 2948.75; Bbg US$ index little lower at 1285.86 (-.037).
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  • Treasuries are trading moderately weaker, low end of narrow range as rates scale back a small portion of Friday's risk-off & data-driven rally.
  • Treasury March'25 10Y futures are currently -5.5 at 109-16.5 (109-16L/109-21H), inside technical levels: initial resistance above at 109-24/110-00 (High Feb 21 / 7 and the bull trigger), support well below at 108-21.5 (Low Feb 19). 10Y yield +.0058 at 4.4371%, curves flatter: 2s10s -1.134 at 21.770, 5s30s -.378 at 40.051.
  • Heavier volume despite Japan out on extended holiday weekend, ongoing quarterly futures roll from Mar'25 to Jun'25 (June takes lead this Friday), helps push TYH5 to 420k so far.
  • Limited data today with regional Fed reporting (prior, est): Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (0.15, -0.05) at 0830ET, Dallas Fed Mfg Activity (14.1, 6.4) at 1030ET. No scheduled Fed speakers.
  • The upcoming US economic calendar is backloaded, with the second release for Q4 national accounts on Thursday before the January PCE report on Friday. Real GDP growth is seen confirming what was at the time a softer than expected 2.3% annualized in Q4, whilst there will also be a first estimate for real GDI growth after 2.1% in Q3.
  • US Treasury auctions resume $76B 13W & $68B 26W bill auctions at 1130ET, $69B 2Y Note auction (91282CMP3) at 1300ET.
  • Cross asset update: Crude mildly higher (WTI +.08 at 70.48; Gold climbing 12.72 at 2948.75; Bbg US$ index little lower at 1285.86 (-.037).