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STIR: Schmid, Bowman and Harker The Pick Of Upcoming Fedspeak

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have softened slightly overnight, falling 0.5-1bp ahead of multiple Fed appearances and of course payrolls tomorrow.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 1.5bp Jan, 11bp Mar, 16bp May, 25.5bp Jun, 29bp Jul and 40bp Dec.
  • Boston Fed’s Collins (’25 voter) told Bloomberg News last yesterday that she favors fewer rate cuts in 2025 than she had anticipated just a few months ago, following strong employment data and lingering inflation. She emphasized the need for patience and aligned herself with the median dot from the December SEP.
  • Some of the main quotes from the Dec FOMC minutes were taken verbatim from Powell's press conference, and aren't really any more hawkish than the rate path portrayed by the December Dot Plot. "A substantial majority" saw that with the policy stance "still meaningfully restrictive", but also well positioned for patience.
  • Of today’s speakers, we put most weight on a hawkish Schmid and Bowman for near-term considerations, whilst Harker, a ’26 voter, is also of interest.
  • 0900ET – Harker (’26) on economic outlook (text + Q&A). These are long-awaited remarks having last touched on mon pol in September.
  • 0905ET – Collins (’25) on economy (text + Q&A)
  • 1200ET – Barkin (non-voter) again repeats a speech, followed by Q&A
  • 1330ET – Schmid (’25) on economic outlook (text tbd, Q&A). One of the more hawkish FOMC members, he said Nov 19 that now is the time to dial back restrictiveness of policy but that short-term rates aren’t overly restrictive, only somewhat. The Fed will wait to react to fiscal policy rather than pre-empting it.
  • 1335ET – Bowman (perm. voter) reflects on 2024 (text + Q&A), talking on mon pol, economic performance and banking regulation lessons. Some might consider this a public job interview for one of the most hawkish FOMC members. Newswires have reported Bowman is being considered by the incoming Trump administration as the next VC for Supervision with Barr stepping down next month or (seemingly less likely) that she could be on a list of candidates to replace Powell as Chair in May 2026. 
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have softened slightly overnight, falling 0.5-1bp ahead of multiple Fed appearances and of course payrolls tomorrow.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 1.5bp Jan, 11bp Mar, 16bp May, 25.5bp Jun, 29bp Jul and 40bp Dec.
  • Boston Fed’s Collins (’25 voter) told Bloomberg News last yesterday that she favors fewer rate cuts in 2025 than she had anticipated just a few months ago, following strong employment data and lingering inflation. She emphasized the need for patience and aligned herself with the median dot from the December SEP.
  • Some of the main quotes from the Dec FOMC minutes were taken verbatim from Powell's press conference, and aren't really any more hawkish than the rate path portrayed by the December Dot Plot. "A substantial majority" saw that with the policy stance "still meaningfully restrictive", but also well positioned for patience.
  • Of today’s speakers, we put most weight on a hawkish Schmid and Bowman for near-term considerations, whilst Harker, a ’26 voter, is also of interest.
  • 0900ET – Harker (’26) on economic outlook (text + Q&A). These are long-awaited remarks having last touched on mon pol in September.
  • 0905ET – Collins (’25) on economy (text + Q&A)
  • 1200ET – Barkin (non-voter) again repeats a speech, followed by Q&A
  • 1330ET – Schmid (’25) on economic outlook (text tbd, Q&A). One of the more hawkish FOMC members, he said Nov 19 that now is the time to dial back restrictiveness of policy but that short-term rates aren’t overly restrictive, only somewhat. The Fed will wait to react to fiscal policy rather than pre-empting it.
  • 1335ET – Bowman (perm. voter) reflects on 2024 (text + Q&A), talking on mon pol, economic performance and banking regulation lessons. Some might consider this a public job interview for one of the most hawkish FOMC members. Newswires have reported Bowman is being considered by the incoming Trump administration as the next VC for Supervision with Barr stepping down next month or (seemingly less likely) that she could be on a list of candidates to replace Powell as Chair in May 2026. 
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