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Scholz's Ratings Slide Amid Gov't Infighting Over Corporate Tax Relief

GERMANY

Latest opinion polling from state broadcaster ZDF shows more respondents dissatisfied with Chancellor Olaf Scholz's leadership than satisfied for the first time since his coalition came to power in 2021. Fifty-one percent of respondents were dissatisfied with the work of Scholz, compared to 43% satisfied and 6% unsure. The survey comes in the week that Scholz's gov't failed to pass a multi-billion euro programme of corporate tax relief intended to kick-start the German economy, following a veto from Families Minister Lisa Paus who was pushing for additional funds for child benefits.

  • Paus’ veto highlights the continued strains within the gov't between Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), the environmentalist Greens, and the pro-business liberal Free Democrats (FDP). Following the veto from Paus (who hails from the Greens), FDP Finance Minister Christian Lindner posted on X that "Germany needs growth again, It is therefore regrettable that a cabinet decision […] was not possible. Families with children also need good jobs,"
  • The apparent dysfunction within the gov't, among other factors, has seen the right-wing nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) cement itself in second place in most opinion polling.
  • AfD strength has led to some stark comments from senior politicians. President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, nominally a non-partisan figurehead, stated in a speechon 10 August that “we all have it in our hands to put those who despise our democracy in their place”. This was seen bysome observers as an implicit call to ban the AfD, although the party was not mentioned by name.

Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Source: INSA, Forsa, FGW, Kantar, YouGov, GMS, Civey, Infratest dimap, Ipsos, Wahlkriesprognose, Allensbach, MNI

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