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Scholz's SPD Fall To Third Place In Latest Opinion Poll

GERMANY

The latest federal election opinion poll has Chancellor Olaf Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats falling to third place, behind the opposition centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the environmentalist centre-left Greens.

  • Federal election opinion poll: CDU/CSU: 26% (+3), Greens: 24% (+3), SPD: 22% (-3), AfD: 10% (-1), FDP: 7% (-2), Die Linke: 4% . FSG Wahlen, Fieldwork 17-19 May, chgs w. 29 Apr, 1,162 respondents.
  • Recent weeks have seen significant blows to Scholz's standing in the form of poor results for the SPD in state elections in Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia. Scholz became involved heavily in campaigning, notably in the NRW election, leading to pundits viewing the vote as a 'referendum' on Scholz's leadership.
  • The chancellor's stance on military support for Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions on Russia has come in for some criticism, with the more hardline Green members in the Cabinet (VC Habeck and FM Baerbock) winning plaudits for their vocal backing of more aid for Ukraine and tougher sanctions on Russia.
  • Scholz is likely to remain safe in his position for now. However, over the longer term a sustained drop in support for the SPD could see challengers within the party emerge.
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