May 17, 2022 20:16 GMT
- Scotiabank see headline CPI up +0.7% M/M in NSA terms which drives year-ago inflation up from 6.7% to 6.9% Y/Y.
- Gasoline prices should add nothing in NSA terms but may drag in SA terms whilst modest further weighted contributions are likely from food, shelter and new vehicle prices.
- Used cars: StatCan has pledged to issue a technical paper outlining methodological plans and timing towards including used vehicle prices in CPI but has recently said they won’t be included in the April CPI estimates.
- The most likely scenario is that prices will be incorporated going forward without including them in historical revisions, capturing the eventual deceleration in used vehicles prices.