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Scotia Above Consensus For CPI Plus Used Car Details

CANADA
  • Scotiabank see headline CPI up +0.7% M/M in NSA terms which drives year-ago inflation up from 6.7% to 6.9% Y/Y.
  • Gasoline prices should add nothing in NSA terms but may drag in SA terms whilst modest further weighted contributions are likely from food, shelter and new vehicle prices.
  • Used cars: StatCan has pledged to issue a technical paper outlining methodological plans and timing towards including used vehicle prices in CPI but has recently said they won’t be included in the April CPI estimates.
  • The most likely scenario is that prices will be incorporated going forward without including them in historical revisions, capturing the eventual deceleration in used vehicles prices.
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  • Scotiabank see headline CPI up +0.7% M/M in NSA terms which drives year-ago inflation up from 6.7% to 6.9% Y/Y.
  • Gasoline prices should add nothing in NSA terms but may drag in SA terms whilst modest further weighted contributions are likely from food, shelter and new vehicle prices.
  • Used cars: StatCan has pledged to issue a technical paper outlining methodological plans and timing towards including used vehicle prices in CPI but has recently said they won’t be included in the April CPI estimates.
  • The most likely scenario is that prices will be incorporated going forward without including them in historical revisions, capturing the eventual deceleration in used vehicles prices.