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Scotia On Upcoming May CPI Report

CANADA
  • “This one could matter a lot to BoC pricing with markets pricing a strong chance at a 25bps hike in July and about a half-point hike before year-end.”
  • It will be the last inflation report before the BoC’s next decision on July 12th and so a surprise in either direction could influence whether additional tightening unfolds” and in what manner.
  • Scotia look for a 0.5% M/M NSA rise for headline with the Y/Y falling from 4.4% to 3.5% Y/Y.
  • Traditional core CPI (ex-food and energy) is expected to climb by 0.5% M/M translating into a 0.4% M/M SA gain, but “what will matter more to the BoC will be evidence on the continued breadth of gains and the M/M trend pressures on the trimmed mean and weighted median core inflation gauges.”
  • The release will incorporate updates to basket weights to reflect 2022 spending levels and the composition of spending versus 2021. How they affect shelter costs may be a risk but Scotia doesn’t expect a significant impact on overall CPI. The adjustments affect CPI from May forward with no adjustments to history.
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