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Scotiabank: Inflation Expectations Are On A Clear Downtrend

COLOMBIA
  • May's inflation is the cherry on the cake to affirm Scotiabank’s rate stability call for BanRep's rate in the June meeting. Economic activity slowdown, the narrowing of the current account figure and lower USDCOP level create an appropriated context for a rate pause.
  • Colombian data have been weak, of late. Economic activity surprisingly contracted 0.8% y/y in April according to most recently releases figures. Inflation has peaked, and inflation expectations are on a clear downtrend, while the stronger COP is also cause for optimism via imported price pressures.
  • Where Friday’s decision will be of greater interest will be the bank’s outlook and message around how many meetings the policy rate will remain at 13.25%. Scotiabank’s team thinks officials will hold off on any rate cuts until Q4, when they see 100bps across the two meetings in the quarter.
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