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PERU: Scotiabank Say 25BP BCRP Cut in March Likely

PERU
BulletPeruEM BulletEmerging Market News
  • As noted earlier, the next tier one data release in Peru is February CPI inflation on March 01. Scotiabank believe the data is likely to be negative again, and March inflation is likely to be lower than the same month in 2024. This would take annual inflation from 1.9% in January to levels close to the lower end of the target range (1.0%) at the end of Q1.
  • In Scotiabank’s baseline scenario, they expected a cut in either March or April, but now the cut is more likely to occur in March, given the low levels of inflation and the exchange rate.
  • The next BCRP meeting/decision is scheduled for March 13.
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  • As noted earlier, the next tier one data release in Peru is February CPI inflation on March 01. Scotiabank believe the data is likely to be negative again, and March inflation is likely to be lower than the same month in 2024. This would take annual inflation from 1.9% in January to levels close to the lower end of the target range (1.0%) at the end of Q1.
  • In Scotiabank’s baseline scenario, they expected a cut in either March or April, but now the cut is more likely to occur in March, given the low levels of inflation and the exchange rate.
  • The next BCRP meeting/decision is scheduled for March 13.