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Scotiabank See Above Consensus CPI Inflation

CANADA
  • Scotiabank see headline CPI inflation at an above consensus 7.8% Y/Y (cons 7.6%) as it cools from 8.1%, with a 0.4% M/M SA gain.
  • CPI ex-food-and-energy meanwhile is expected to pick up from 5.3% to 5.8% Y/Y with a strong 0.7% M/M SA rise.
  • The average of the three central tendency measures are expected to have climbed over 5% Y/Y having generally converged around 5% in June when common was 4.6%, weighted median 4.9% and trimmed mean 5.5%. Common component’s upward revisions have been particularly eye catching of late.
  • “Statistics Canada captures housing in CPI by using the house-only component of the new house price index (ie: ex-land) as a driver of replacement cost within shelter costs, versus OER in the US. This driver is waning in Canada”.
  • “A mild acceleration in food prices is estimated after the prior month’s sudden deceleration with an added kicker perhaps from a weaker C$ on average in July versus June”.
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