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Scotiabank See BanRep Cutting By 75bp In March

COLOMBIA
  • Following yesterday’s manufacturing and retail sales data, Scotiabank expect the Colombian economy to have grown by 1.1% y/y in Q4, vs. -0.3% prior (1600GMT / 1100ET). They note that investment has remained low and that household spending is contracting. With weak sentiment and credit indicators and a contractionary monetary policy stance, they expect economic activity to remain soft in the coming quarters, with full-year GDP growth below 2% this year.
  • This outlook is compatible with the convergence of inflation towards the target in their view. Given strong base effects, they expect a significant correction of inflation this quarter, with the y/y rate falling below 8% in February (from 8.35% in January). As a result, they believe that BanRep will have room to step up the pace of rate cuts to 75bp at its March meeting, from 25bp in the previous two meetings.
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