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Scotiabank’s Colombia and Peru Central Bank Policy Forecasts

LATAM
  • Scotiabank’s take is that the BanRep board remains highly data-dependent. However, despite their perception that a unanimous 100bps hike is a strong signal of independence and compromise with macro stability, it wasn’t enough for markets that had expected the bigger hike complemented by currency intervention measures.
    • For now, Scotiabank maintain their call of a 50bps hike at the December 16 meeting.
  • For Peru, the BCRP Chief Velarde said yesterday that the bank is “at the end” of the hiking cycle “but that does not mean that we are not going to lift”. This is in line with Scotiabank’s forecast for a 25bps hike at the BCRP’s policy decision next week, in line with continued inflationary pressures highlighted by the acceleration of core inflation from 5.5% to 5.7% Y/y in October.
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