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ASIA FX: SEA FX Weaker, USD/IDR Testing Above 16000

ASIA FX
BulletEM BulletAPACEmerging Market News

In South East Asia FX, the bias has been for a firmer USD, albeit with dollar gains modest so far in Monday today and to varying degrees. This is underperforming some of the higher beta trends in the G10 space, where AUD and NZD are firmer. Working the other way is a weaker yen and patchy regional equity performance. Carry over USD momentum from last week, post strong yield gains, may also be in play (the Fed is still expected to cut this week). 

  • Spot USD/IDR has pushed above 16000, reaching fresh highs of 16028. We are above technical EMA resistance points, with the next logical upside target likely to be around the 16200 region. The consensus on this week's BI meeting outcome has now shifted to no change (late last week the majority sat with a cut). This is not surprising in light of fresh FX weakness for the rupiah. On the data front, we had better than expected Nov trade figures, due to higher exports (+9.14%y/y). This aided the trade surplus, +$4.42bn, but the benefit to IDR has been modest.
  • USD/PHP spiked higher, getting to 58.74, so not far off recent record highs around the 59.00 level. The pair continues to recover from early Dec lows around 57.75.
  • USD/THB is also higher, last around 34.15. We see the FinMin again calling for a rate cut this week, although the consensus is firmly for no change, as the BoT looks to preserve policy space.
  • USD/MYR is around 0.25% weaker in ringgit terms so far today. We were last just above 4.4600, wedged under recent highs of 4.4850. 
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In South East Asia FX, the bias has been for a firmer USD, albeit with dollar gains modest so far in Monday today and to varying degrees. This is underperforming some of the higher beta trends in the G10 space, where AUD and NZD are firmer. Working the other way is a weaker yen and patchy regional equity performance. Carry over USD momentum from last week, post strong yield gains, may also be in play (the Fed is still expected to cut this week). 

  • Spot USD/IDR has pushed above 16000, reaching fresh highs of 16028. We are above technical EMA resistance points, with the next logical upside target likely to be around the 16200 region. The consensus on this week's BI meeting outcome has now shifted to no change (late last week the majority sat with a cut). This is not surprising in light of fresh FX weakness for the rupiah. On the data front, we had better than expected Nov trade figures, due to higher exports (+9.14%y/y). This aided the trade surplus, +$4.42bn, but the benefit to IDR has been modest.
  • USD/PHP spiked higher, getting to 58.74, so not far off recent record highs around the 59.00 level. The pair continues to recover from early Dec lows around 57.75.
  • USD/THB is also higher, last around 34.15. We see the FinMin again calling for a rate cut this week, although the consensus is firmly for no change, as the BoT looks to preserve policy space.
  • USD/MYR is around 0.25% weaker in ringgit terms so far today. We were last just above 4.4600, wedged under recent highs of 4.4850.