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US OUTLOOK/OPINION
Seeing a lot of discussion about seasonal adjustment issues being a big factor behind the April nonfarms miss. Almost all of the NFP previews we saw pointed this out beforehand, as a caveat in case there was a big 'miss' in either direction.
- Non-adjusted, the US added 1.089mn jobs in April. That's very typical for a 'normal' April (the average for 2016-2019 in April was +1.04mn), and also in line with the 1.1-1.2mn jobs created in each of Feb and Mar. If the BLS is using the typical April +1mn as a benchmark (the avg 2016-2019 seasonally adjusted payroll rises in April were around +200k vs +1.04mn after adjustment), hard to say how much of the 2021 figure was accounted for with the BLS making its adjustments.
- Would point out that some of the sectors you'd expect would be roaring back DID roar back in NSA terms - Leisure and Hospitality added 575k jobs NSA in April which looks like the biggest non-pandemic total ever (apart from the May-Jun rehiring in 2020). Not sure whether a downward seasonal adjustment is warranted for those areas.
- You can't discount the seasonal adjustment as a big factor here, in other words. Most 'circumstantial' evidence from the labor market suggests that the April figure is something of an aberration.
Nonfarm Payrolls, chg '000sBLS, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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