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SEB: Norges Bank to Reiterate the Message From March

NORGES BANK
  • The rate decision is an intermediate decision and will thus not include any new macro projections or rate path. An unchanged policy rate at 0.75% is widely expected. We expect the bank to reiterate that “the policy rate will most likely be raised further in June” while refraining from sending any new policy hints.
  • We believe developments since the last rate decision, although mixed, have not deviated substantially from the bank’s trajectory and thus expect a neutral policy statement.
  • Following a surprisingly large rise in February, CPI-ATE inflation surprised on the downside in March. The year-on-year rate was unchanged at 2.1% while Norges Bank expected a rise to 2.5%. Monthly volatility can be high, but we have revised our CPI-ATE forecast a tad lower though it remains above Norges Bank’s trajectory in 2022.
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