SEB note that today's Norges Bank "meeting is...>

NOK: SEB note that today's Norges Bank "meeting is an intermediate meeting

without a monetary policy report and only a short statement will be published.

We do not believe that the Norges Bank will reveal any new policy hints at the

May meeting and our assessment is also that the market does not expect the bank

to confirm a June hike." They highlight the following:

- EUR/NOK trades way above its ST fair value heading into the meeting. Among the

3 factors in the model, it is most clearly the level of the interest rate spread

that is not supporting the current spot level, and a hawkish outcome would

trigger quite a large move/correction lower.

- Positioning indicators show short NOK exposure. Both a proxy for hedge fund

positioning as well as our own proxy for systematic funds show that speculators

are long EUR/NOK heading into the meeting.

- Dividends this spring are far smaller than for e.g. SEK but as there is also

less liquidity, they may still have a NOK weakening impact when they are at

their largest which is this week. This is thus a NOK headwind during the week

and to a more limited extent during the two following weeks.