SEB Wary Of Noisy Month-End Flows For SEK

SEB note that their month-end model "indicates that the currency rebalancing need for a typical Swedish portfolio manager for October is to buy SEK. The most pronounced need is indicated to be USD/SEK selling, but the size of the need is relatively small and there are unusually many other factors which may have an impact on the SEK at the end of this month. To summarise:

• Domestic EOM rebalancing with SEK positive flow.
• Foreign EOM rebalancing with SEK negative flow.
• Swedish companies' pay-out dividends resulting in SEK negative flow.
• School autumn break leading to less liquidity and possible a smaller SEK positive flow.
• ECB rate decision to add noise."