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Second Monthly Fall in Unemployment Claims

SPAIN DATA

Spanish unemployment claims saw a second consecutive monthly fall in December, falling -27.3k to a 2707k, the lowest figure since August.

  • There was limited market reaction to the release, with Spanish Bono/Oblis largely trading in line with core EGBs. Yields are currently around 3bps higher across the curve.
  • Services claims fell -25.2k on the month (vs -17.3k prior), a dynamic we noted was likely give that the claims data is not seasonally adjusted.
  • This suggests upside risks to INE's services employment index, which fell a touch in October to 113.2 (vs 113.5 in September), while the 3M average of the index fell to 113.1 vs 113.2 prior.
  • Elsewhere, claims rose on the month for in industry (+1.5k) and construction (+5.3k). This is consistent with yesterday's manufacturing PMI, where respondents lowered staff numbers in December amid a weak demand backdrop.
  • An update on Spain's monthly unemployment rate will accompany the Eurozone-wide release next Tuesday (9 Jan). Spanish unemployment has hovered around 12% since April 2023.

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