Second Poll Shows Greens Overtaking CDU In Chancellery Race

An opinion poll released by Forsa earlier today shows the environmentalist Greens as the most popular political party in Germany, the second poll in a week to do so.

• Federal election poll : Green : 28% (+5), CDU-CSU: 22% (-5), SPD: 13% (-2), FDP: 12% (+3), AfD: 11% (=), Die Linke: 7% (-1). Forsa, 20-26 Apr. Chgs w/ 6-12 Apr. 2,507 respondents.
• If this poll was reflected in the final election result the Bundestag would have the following composition, with a number of potential governing coalitions:

Chart 1. Hypothetical Composition of Bundestag based on 26 Apr Forsa Opinion Poll

Source: Forsa, @ElectsWorld, MNI

• Of course it should be remembered that a single poll in itself does not represent an accurate picture of the electorates' leanings, with a broader trend needed to confirm this poll's findings.
• Nevertheless, the Greens have now led in two polls from separate pollsters since the selection of Annalena Baerbock as the party's candidate for chancellor in the September vote, while the CDU/CSU continue to slump following the Union parties' selection of CDU head Armin Laschet as their chancellor candidate in mid-April.
• As can be seen in the hypothetical coalition scenarios based on this poll, the Greens would have the best chance of forming and leading a gov't, while the CDU would have fewer options.
• The scenario that would cause most ripples in markets is the Leftist Coalition of the Greens, centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) and far-left Die Linke, which would scrape together enough seats for a majority gov't according to this single poll (other polls with the CDU polling better would not have this as a potential scenario).