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Second-Tier Inflation Data Surprises To Downside

BRAZIL
  • May IGP-M inflation registered at -4.47% y/y versus the -4.38% estimate. Data is more focused on wholesale prices than Brazil’s official inflation index, but may bolster the argument for an earlier rate cut from the central bank. IGP-M inflation is composed of producer prices (60% weight), consumer prices (30% weight) and construction costs (10% weight).
  • Analysts note that the short-end of the DI curve is pricing in a small chance of a rate cut in August, however, the majority of rate cut bets indicate that the easing cycle won’t start until September.
  • Central bank Governor Roberto Campos Neto said at an event Monday after the local market closed that headline inflation is easing considerably. He also stated that core CPI is easing slower than expected but that central bankers believe core CPI will probably continue to ease further. Campos Neto also underscored that inflation expectations are improving, but remain higher than the long-term goal.
  • The domestic focus this week will be on Q1 GDP data where growth is expected to register at 3.0% Y/y from a prior reading of 1.9%. Data today just released:
    • BRAZIL OUTSTANDING LOANS FELL 0.1% IN APRIL FROM MONTH AGO (BBG)
    • BRAZIL PERSONAL LOAN DEFAULT RATE WAS 6.2% IN APRIL (BBG)
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