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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessSell-Side Analysts Bring Forward Emergency Rate Hike Expectations as TRY Crumbles
- GOLDMAN SACHS SAYS NOW EXPECTS TURKEY TO HIKE INTEREST RATES TO 20% IN Q2 NEXT YEAR, SEES RISKS FOR AN EARLIER MOVE GIVEN ONGOING LIRA PRESSURE - Reuters
- The mention of FX intervention from the CBRT seems like a backstop for the bank at this point with its back against the wall on delivering rate hikes in the near future against hard opposition from Erdogan and the MHP.
- Gross FX reserves currently stand around $120bn after improving on a number of FX swap contracts, but their depletion would leave Turkey extremely vulnerable going into a tighter external environment in 2022 with US rates & the USD expected to rise in line with expedited rate hike/taper timelines.
- More sell-side institutions are now expecting CBRT to hike rates in the 400-600bp range by 2Q22 as the impact of TRY devaluation passes through to CPI metrics – making the recent policy missteps more visibly clear.
- Capital controls and other unconventional monetary policy measures to curb lira liquidity are also being floated at options among the sell-side, should the CBRT refuse to deliver any emergency rate hikes.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.