Sell-Side Analysts See $120B Ranges For Borrowing In Q4/Q1 (3/3)

Some sell-side outlooks for Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 marketable borrowing requirements, including - where available - analyst's expectations for the size of the budget deficit. Reminder that Treasury's previous projection for marketable borrowing in the Oct-Dec / i.e. Q4 2023 quarter was $852B. For Q4 expectations run from $760B to $885B; Q1 '24 from $700B to $822B.

• BMO: The "barometer" for this quarter's figure is $852B and "we suspect any substantial deviation from the previously offered guidance will be tradable".
• Deutsche Bank:$749B in Oct-Nov borrowing (implying $380B bills and $368B coupons), $822B for Jan-Mar (assuming end quarter TGA still $750B). That's $650B in financing requirements and and $172B in SOMA redemptions. Note DB eyes a $1.75T deficit in FY2024 vs $2.0T in FY 2023.
• Mizuho: Q4 2023 $840B marketable borrowing, $786B Q1 2024.
• NatWest: Q4 2023 $885B marketable borrowing, $785B end-quarter cash balance. $700B in borrowing in Q1 2024.a
• SocGen:$760B for Oct-Dec quarter (net bill issuance of $446B) with lower est from previous guidance based on 1) restarting of student loan payments in October 2) income tax receipts delayed into October, including California's 3) IRS ceasing processing an employee retention tax credit in Q4. Jan-Mar quarter seen $700B (net bill issuance of $200B). Note SocGen assume a $1.7T deficit for FY 2024.
• Wrightson ICAP: "We have no reason to expect the official estimate [for Q4 2023 borrowing requirement] to change much in this week's announcement... the original projection seems pessimistic to us in light of recent cash flow trends" but "Treasury's estimates have had a pessimistic tilt all year and have generally turned out to be right". For Jan-Mar, it's "a huge question mark" with "our tentative guess" that the quarterly borrowing requirement will be similar to Q4, with an $800B marketable borrowing requirement. Note Wrightson ICAP assume a $2T deficit in FY 2024.