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Sell-side Expectations ahead of CPI at 7:00GMT / 8:00CET

NORWAY
  • The Bloomberg survey looks for a median of 1.7%Y/Y for CPI-ATE with a skew to the updside.
  • Danske: "We expect that Norwegian core inflation dropped from 1.8% to 1.5% y/y (consensus: 1.7%) in January, as some of the upside surprises in December probably were one-offs. There is a considerable upside risk to our expectations given strong anecdotal evidence that several industries raised their prices in January."
  • Nordea: "We see January core inflation at 1.7% y/y while Norges Bank expects 1.0% y/y. If we are right, the inflation figures will contribute to an upward revision of the rate path in March... Headline inflation will likely moderate to 4.2% y/y from 5.3% in December as electricity prices have fallen during January and due to the Government compensation scheme for households."
  • SEB: "We expect CPI-ATE inflation to slow slightly. Inflation data for January is extremely volatile, which makes the estimate for this month more uncertain than usual. Falling electricity prices in combination with base effects from rising energy prices last year means that we predict a substantial decline in headline CPI for January."
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