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Sell-side labour market preview highlights

UK

Here are some highlights from sell-side labour market previews:

  • Barclays: "We will be looking in particular at HMRC payroll numbers for July to assess the extent to which (if at all) the fall in furlough numbers in July represents workers who have remained in employment or who have been detached from their employer... with much of the economy opened up in June, we will be watching for any reductions in the elevated level of inactivity... and, if so, whether they are moving into unemployment or employment."
  • Deutsche Bank: "We see AWE Regular Pay rising by 7.4% (3m/YoY). The main thing to watch here is for signs of recruitment difficulties across the economy. As we recently noted, labour market mismatches are rising in certain pockets of the economy. Should this continue, we could see some sustained wage rises in the near-term."

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