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Sell Side Sees More to Come Following Banxico Hike

MEXICO
  • The Banxico raised rates to 4.75% from 4.50% yesterday, alongside analyst expectations. The Bank cited above-target inflation, pressures emanating from Fed monetary policy and a need to prop up the Peso. Sell-side analysts see further policy tightening going forward, with JPM forecasting two further 25bps raises this year.
  • Banxico raised their inflation forecasts to 6.2% at Q4 this year, with upside pressures seen keeping the rate above target until Q3 2023 - a delay of six months from their prior forecast.
  • Elsewhere, AMLO confirmed that constitutional electricity reform was sent to Congress yesterday, the latest in the government's attempt to prioritise state-owned utilities over private companies.
  • PMI data crosses later today, with markets expecting both manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity to have picked up across September in the IMEF data. The central bank economist survey is also due.
  • MXN trades slightly firmer against the greenback at typing, although USD/MXN was bid overnight to touch a new multi-month high of 20.7288.

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