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Sell-Side Still Favours Hike, Albeit With Less Conviction, Markets Do The Same & Trim Terminal

STIR

BoE-dated OIS has stabilised off of post-CPI dovish extremes, although dovish post-data adjustments remain evident, with the liquid contracts sitting 7-14bp softer as the strip flattens.

  • 14bp of tightening is showing for tomorrow’s MPC (56% of tightening is priced), while terminal policy rate pricing hovers around the 5.50% mark as participants now look for a ‘one and done’ move from the Bank post-CPI.
  • The sell-side notes that we have seen still point to a hike tomorrow, although with far less conviction in the wake of today’s softer than expected inflation readings.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Sep-235.327+14.1
Nov-235.396+21.0
Dec-235.429+24.3
Feb-245.437+25.1
Mar-245.416+23.0
May-245.372+18.6
Jun-245.309+12.3
Aug-245.215+3.0
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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