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Selling Pressure Remains Elevated on EM Currencies

EM FX
  • Rising Covid uncertainty has been supporting 'safe' asset such as the Dollar, with the DXY index breaking above the 96 level earlier for the first time since July 2020.
  • TRY has been the weakest performer among the EM world, as dovish CBRT and elevated political uncertainty keep weighing on the Lira. The CBRT decided to cut rate by another 100bps to 15% (down from 19% in August) despite inflation standing above 20%.
  • Risk-on ZAR has also been under pressure this week amid rising price volatility (VIX). The 25bps increase by the SARB (the first hike since the pandemic) was not enough to offset the USD strength in the past few days. ZAR is down 2.5% against the dollar this week.
  • CEE currencies have also been depreciating sharply this week, with PLN being the worst performer down 2.3% against the USD. The zloty is also trading at its lowest level since March 2009 against the Euro.
  • Performance was mixed with Latam currencies: CLP has been sensitive to the USD rise and is down 3.5% against the dollar ahead of Chilean president election (on Sunday).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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