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US TSYS: Sentiment Buoyed After Mixed November Jobs Data

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries look to finish near early session highs, curves steeper (2s10s +2.126 at 5.135) with short end rates outperforming after this morning's better than expected jobs gain (+227k vs. 220k est) even as the unemployment rate inched up to 4.2% from 4.1%. On net, the data reinforced the view of a resilient labor market despite gradual cooling - which in turn supported expectations of more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
  • Steeper post-data curves buoyed projected rate cuts into early 2025 vs. pre-data (*) as follows: Dec'24 cumulative -22.2bp (-17.1bp), Jan'25 -29.7bp (-24.0bp), Mar'25 -46.6bp (-38.6bp), May'25 -56.4bp (-48.1bp).
  • Meanwhile, the preliminary U.Mich consumer survey for December saw sentiment firm a little more than expected at 74.0 (cons 73.3) after 71.8. Components were mixed though, with a much stronger than expected increase in current conditions (77.7 vs cons 65.2 after 63.9) at the expense of expectations (71.6 vs cons 77.7 after 76.9).
  • Reminder, the Federal Reserve enters their self-imposed blackout at midnight tonight through December 19, the day after the final FOMC policy announcement for 2024. Focus turns to next week's CPI and PPI inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.
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  • Treasuries look to finish near early session highs, curves steeper (2s10s +2.126 at 5.135) with short end rates outperforming after this morning's better than expected jobs gain (+227k vs. 220k est) even as the unemployment rate inched up to 4.2% from 4.1%. On net, the data reinforced the view of a resilient labor market despite gradual cooling - which in turn supported expectations of more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
  • Steeper post-data curves buoyed projected rate cuts into early 2025 vs. pre-data (*) as follows: Dec'24 cumulative -22.2bp (-17.1bp), Jan'25 -29.7bp (-24.0bp), Mar'25 -46.6bp (-38.6bp), May'25 -56.4bp (-48.1bp).
  • Meanwhile, the preliminary U.Mich consumer survey for December saw sentiment firm a little more than expected at 74.0 (cons 73.3) after 71.8. Components were mixed though, with a much stronger than expected increase in current conditions (77.7 vs cons 65.2 after 63.9) at the expense of expectations (71.6 vs cons 77.7 after 76.9).
  • Reminder, the Federal Reserve enters their self-imposed blackout at midnight tonight through December 19, the day after the final FOMC policy announcement for 2024. Focus turns to next week's CPI and PPI inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.