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Sentiment Supported as Equities Retain Corrective Cycle Higher

FOREX
  • Equity markets remain in a corrective cycle, and trade higher again Monday, underpinning a calmer outlook to currency markets so far this week. As a result, the greenback is softer and the USD Index is through last week's lows. The main beneficiaries so far have been the EUR and SEK, with both currencies posturing ahead of the Riksbank decision on Thursday and the ECB's Sintra policy forum across the week.
  • AUD, NZD are the weakest performers so far Monday, but both currencies hold within recent ranges and are yet to test any material downside levels. AUDUSD continues to trade above 0.6851, the Jun 14 low. This support however remains exposed and trend signals are bearish. A resumption of weakness would also signal scope for a test of key support and the bear trigger at 0.6829, the May 12 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 0.6805, the Jun 22 2020 low.
  • Data releases due Monday include prelim May durable goods as well as pending home sales. ECB's Lagarde is due to speak as she marks the opening of the ECB's central banking forum in Sintra. Markets watch for any update on the progress of the anti-fragmentation tool expected to be unveiled in the coming policy meetings.
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