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September Bi-Weekly CPI Expected To Increase to 5.72% Y/Y

MEXICO
  • Inflation in the first two weeks of September likely rose to 5.72% from 5.60% in the second half of August, remaining above the ceiling of the 3.0% +/- 1 percentage point target. A greater than expected acceleration may cement the likelihood of another hike by Banxico at their September 30 meeting. Currently all four analysts that have reported their forecasts expect a 25bps hike to 4.75%.
    • 1200BST/0700ET: Mex September Bi-Weekly CPI, est. 0.28%, prior 0.18%
    • 1200BST/0700ET: Mex September Bi-Weekly CPI Y/Y, est. 5.72%, prior 5.60%
    • 1200BST/0700ET: Mex September Bi- Weekly Core CPI, est. 0.24%, prior 0.17%
  • Non-core inflation likely rose to 8.47% from 8.20% two weeks prior. Higher energy inflation due to increasing gasoline and propane prices should account for most of the advance, largely consistent with prices in global oil and gas markets.
  • Bloomberg expect core inflation to rise to 4.85% from 4.77%. Accelerating services inflation in line with recovering domestic demand and economic reopening should account for most of this advance.
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