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September CPI Above Expectations


Sweden September CPIF printed at an unrounded +3.95% Y/Y (vs +3.7% Y/Y cons; +4.7% prior) and +0.39% M/M (vs +0.2% cons; -0.1% prior).

  • CPIF ex-energy was +6.92% Y/Y (vs +6.7% cons; +7.2% prior) and +0.51% M/M (vs +0.3% cons; -0.3% prior).
  • The stronger than consensus print was also above the Riksbank forecast, who saw CPIF at +3.75% Y/Y and CPIF ex-energy at +6.57% Y/Y.
  • Overall, the strong print seems to be broad based with continued pressure in the services sector, which will concern the Riksbank.
  • Firmness was seen in clothing prices (+8.4% Y/Y, +4.9% M/M - as summer sales end and new lines are released) and recreation and culture (11.5% Y/Y, 0.8% M/M).
  • The decline in the Y/Y number was driven by lower electricity prices as expected - electricity prices fell -45.3% Y/Y (-5.5% M/M). Lower international flight prices also contributed to the downside.
  • Later today, the Riksbank will release details of their underlying measures of inflation, as well as the rates for goods and services separately, which will give a better indication of the price rises in the areas they are most focused on.
  • Following the release, the SEK spiked around 3 big figures against the EUR and USD, but the EURSEK and USDSEK pairs have come off lows, currently ~-0.2% and ~-0.3% lower on the day respectively.

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