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September Trade Balance Due, JPMorgan Expecting Strong Data

CHILE
  • Friday’s LatAm calendar will be highlighted by Mexico trade balance data for September. The surveyed median forecast is for the trade deficit to have narrowed to 437M from a deficit of 1.377B in August.
  • JPMorgan noted earlier in the week that adding to the stronger signal out of demand indicators, they expect September trade data to be strong. There are a few noteworthy items they will be looking for.
  • First, net external demand appears to have turned into a tailwind last quarter, with exports up sharply, and imports up modestly.
  • Second, manufacturing exports likely grew at a double-digit pace, further reinforcing the sense of rotation from services to goods they expect in supply-side data.
  • Finally, JPM expect both consumer and capital imports to do well again, particularly the latter, reinforcing goods over services consumption, and strong and continued business spending.
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