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Sequential SA Core CPI Inflation Estimated Broadly Flat; Headline & Services Disinflation

GERMAN DATA
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German national level February CPI data suggests core CPI momentum was broadly flat on a seasonally-adjusted basis, MNI estimates. Services and headline inflation both seemingly slowed compared to January, with services remaining elevated on a historical comparison but headline estimated well below the ECB's price stability target on an annualized basis.

  • Specifically, we estimate SA core and services CPI to be both at around 0.3-0.4% M/M (vs +0.35% prior and 0.54% prior), and headline below 0.1% M/M (vs 0.43% prior).
  • In annualized terms, this would imply services and core inflation broadly around 4%, and headline inflation broadly around 1%.
  • The Bundesbank will publish seasonally-adjusted sequential figures later this afternoon, providing more detail.

MNI, Destatis

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German national level February CPI data suggests core CPI momentum was broadly flat on a seasonally-adjusted basis, MNI estimates. Services and headline inflation both seemingly slowed compared to January, with services remaining elevated on a historical comparison but headline estimated well below the ECB's price stability target on an annualized basis.

  • Specifically, we estimate SA core and services CPI to be both at around 0.3-0.4% M/M (vs +0.35% prior and 0.54% prior), and headline below 0.1% M/M (vs 0.43% prior).
  • In annualized terms, this would imply services and core inflation broadly around 4%, and headline inflation broadly around 1%.
  • The Bundesbank will publish seasonally-adjusted sequential figures later this afternoon, providing more detail.

MNI, Destatis