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Serbia Inflation Accelerates to 8.2% YoY in January

CEE
  • Serbia CPI inflation accelerated to 8.2% YoY in January (vs. 8% exp), up from 7.9% the previous month, currently standing at its highest level since July 2013.
  • The 'positive' surprise was broadly expected following NBS (National Bank of Serbia) Quarterly Report last week (inflation was expected to accelerate in January and February according to the report).
  • As a reminder, the NBS decided to leave its benchmark rate steady at 1% as expected for a 14th straight month earlier this month.
  • We have seen that the NBS has not followed its CEE peers in recent months, where central banks have been raising rates aggressively to curb inflationary pressures.
  • The chart below shows the strong divergence between Serbian CPI inflation and the policy rate in the past year.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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