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Services Pushing Core CPIF Up in Jan

SWEDEN
MNI (London)
SWEDEN JAN CPIF -1.3% M/M (FCST -1.2%); DEC +1.9% M/M

SWEDEN JAN CPIF +9.3% Y/Y (FCST +9.5%); DEC +10.2% Y/Y

  • The Riksbank’s closely watched CPIF rate (based on fixed interest rates) fell by -1.3% m/m, 0.1pp lower than expected, cooling by 0.9pp to +9.3% y/y in January, 0.2pp lower than expected.
  • Falling electricity prices were the key downwards driver (-27.2% m/m) in January, with further downwards contribution from clothing (-8.5%), furniture (-2.0%) and transport (-0.2%).
  • Yet prices across hotels and restaruants offset these, up +0.1% m/m and contributing 0.3pp to the monthly change.
  • This alongside the the 0.11pp added to the monthly change due to reweighting largely explains the +0.4% m/m rise in CPIF ex energy, a beat on the -0.2% m/m expected.
  • The February Riksbank meeting’s rate path indicated around a 30% probability of a larger 50bp April hike, this data is a hawkish development.
  • Focus now turns towards the Riksbank's February minutes, due at 8:30GMT / 9:30CET.

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